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Frequency |
Incurred |
LDF |
Ultimate Total
Loss |
Inflation Index |
Indexed Ultimate
Total Loss |
Payroll |
Indexed Ultimate
Total loss Rate |
|
| ( a ) |
( b ) |
( c ) |
( d ) |
( e ) |
( f ) |
( g ) |
( h ) |
|
|
| Year |
|
|
|
( b ) x ( c ) |
|
( d ) x ( e ) |
|
( f ) / ( g ) |
|
|
| 2002 |
34 |
1,903,976 |
105 |
1,999,175 |
1.100 |
2,199,092 |
6,530,018 |
0.337 |
|
| 2003 |
26 |
402,307 |
110 |
442,538 |
1.100 |
486,791 |
6,553,062 |
0.074 |
|
| 2004 |
26 |
235,133 |
130 |
305,673 |
1.100 |
336,240 |
6,612,269 |
0.051 |
|
| 2005 |
28 |
100,344 |
150 |
150,516 |
1.100 |
165,568 |
7,016,493 |
0.024 |
|
| 2006 |
18 |
175,945 |
200 |
351,890 |
1.100 |
387,079 |
7,045,045 |
0.055 |
|
|
|
|
Average Indexed Loss Rate = |
0.108 |
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| |
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|
| Est Payroll |
2007 |
$6,958,788 |
Times Loss Rate |
0.108 |
$752,165 |
Projected Losses |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discounting Payout
with |
10% |
Discount
Factor |
|
| Projected
Losses |
Payout
Period (months) |
Est. Payout % |
Projected
payout per Period |
10%
Discount Factor (Present value $) |
Discounted
payout |
Combined
Discount payout factor |
|
| ( a ) |
( b ) |
( c ) |
( d ) |
( e ) |
( f ) |
( g ) |
|
| |
|
|
( a ) x ( c ) |
|
( d ) x ( e ) |
( c ) x ( e ) |
|
| $752,165 |
12 |
40.00% |
300,866 |
0.909 |
273,515 |
36.36% |
|
|
24 |
40.00% |
300,866 |
0.826 |
248,650 |
33.06% |
|
|
36 |
10.00% |
75,217 |
0.751 |
56,511 |
7.51% |
|
|
48 |
5.00% |
37,608 |
0.683 |
25,687 |
3.42% |
|
|
|
|
60 |
5.00% |
37,608 |
0.621 |
23,352 |
3.10% |
|
|
|
| Total |
|
|
752,165 |
|
627,714 |
83% |
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| Notes & Comments |
|
| |
|
| The top chart promulgates your estimated expected
loss rate.
Multiplied by your expected payroll, gives your estimated expected
loss amount. |
|
| The bottom chart adjusts for the time required to
pay claims and the present value for |
|
| the claims. |
|
| 10% Discount Factor used. |
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Present Value Chart |
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1 |
|
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|
|
N |
1% |
|
2% |
|
3% |
|
4% |
|
5% |
|
6% |
|
7% |
|
8% |
|
9% |
|
10% |
|
11% |
|
12% |
|
periods |
|
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|
|
|
1 |
0.990 |
0.000 |
0.980 |
0.000 |
0.971 |
0.000 |
0.962 |
0.000 |
0.952 |
0.000 |
0.943 |
0.000 |
0.935 |
0.000 |
0.926 |
0.000 |
0.917 |
0.000 |
0.909 |
0.909 |
0.901 |
0.000 |
0.893 |
0.000 |
12 |
0.909 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
0.980 |
0.000 |
0.961 |
0.000 |
0.943 |
0.000 |
0.925 |
0.000 |
0.907 |
0.000 |
0.890 |
0.000 |
0.873 |
0.000 |
0.857 |
0.000 |
0.842 |
0.000 |
0.826 |
0.826 |
0.812 |
0.000 |
0.797 |
0.000 |
24 |
0.826 |
|
|
|
|
3 |
0.971 |
0.000 |
0.942 |
0.000 |
0.915 |
0.000 |
0.889 |
0.000 |
0.864 |
0.000 |
0.840 |
0.000 |
0.816 |
0.000 |
0.794 |
0.000 |
0.772 |
0.000 |
0.751 |
0.751 |
0.731 |
0.000 |
0.712 |
0.000 |
36 |
0.751 |
|
|
|
|
4 |
0.961 |
0.000 |
0.924 |
0.000 |
0.888 |
0.000 |
0.855 |
0.000 |
0.823 |
0.000 |
0.792 |
0.000 |
0.763 |
0.000 |
0.735 |
0.000 |
0.708 |
0.000 |
0.683 |
0.683 |
0.659 |
0.000 |
0.636 |
0.000 |
48 |
0.683 |
|
|
|
|
5 |
0.951 |
0.000 |
0.906 |
0.000 |
0.863 |
0.000 |
0.822 |
0.000 |
0.784 |
0.000 |
0.747 |
0.000 |
0.713 |
0.000 |
0.681 |
0.000 |
0.650 |
0.000 |
0.621 |
0.621 |
0.593 |
0.000 |
0.567 |
0.000 |
60 |
0.621 |
|
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6 |
0.942 |
0.000 |
0.888 |
0.000 |
0.837 |
0.000 |
0.790 |
0.000 |
0.746 |
0.000 |
0.705 |
0.000 |
0.666 |
0.000 |
0.630 |
0.000 |
0.596 |
0.000 |
0.564 |
0.564 |
0.535 |
0.000 |
0.507 |
0.000 |
72 |
0.564 |
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7 |
0.933 |
0.000 |
0.871 |
0.000 |
0.813 |
0.000 |
0.760 |
0.000 |
0.711 |
0.000 |
0.665 |
0.000 |
0.623 |
0.000 |
0.583 |
0.000 |
0.547 |
0.000 |
0.513 |
0.513 |
0.482 |
0.000 |
0.452 |
0.000 |
84 |
0.513 |
|
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8 |
0.923 |
0.000 |
0.853 |
0.000 |
0.789 |
0.000 |
0.731 |
0.000 |
0.677 |
0.000 |
0.627 |
0.000 |
0.582 |
0.000 |
0.540 |
0.000 |
0.502 |
0.000 |
0.467 |
0.467 |
0.434 |
0.000 |
0.404 |
0.000 |
96 |
0.467 |
|
|
|
|
9 |
0.914 |
0.000 |
0.837 |
0.000 |
0.766 |
0.000 |
0.703 |
0.000 |
0.645 |
0.000 |
0.592 |
0.000 |
0.544 |
0.000 |
0.500 |
0.000 |
0.460 |
0.000 |
0.424 |
0.424 |
0.391 |
0.000 |
0.361 |
0.000 |
108 |
0.424 |
|
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|
|
10 |
0.905 |
0.000 |
0.820 |
0.000 |
0.744 |
0.000 |
0.676 |
0.000 |
0.614 |
0.000 |
0.558 |
0.000 |
0.508 |
0.000 |
0.463 |
0.000 |
0.422 |
0.000 |
0.386 |
0.386 |
0.352 |
0.000 |
0.322 |
0.000 |
120 |
0.386 |
|
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|
|
11 |
0.896 |
0.000 |
0.804 |
0.000 |
0.722 |
0.000 |
0.650 |
0.000 |
0.585 |
0.000 |
0.527 |
0.000 |
0.475 |
0.000 |
0.429 |
0.000 |
0.388 |
0.000 |
0.350 |
0.350 |
0.317 |
0.000 |
0.287 |
0.000 |
132 |
0.350 |
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12 |
0.887 |
0.000 |
0.788 |
0.000 |
0.701 |
0.000 |
0.625 |
0.000 |
0.557 |
0.000 |
0.497 |
0.000 |
0.444 |
0.000 |
0.397 |
0.000 |
0.356 |
0.000 |
0.319 |
0.319 |
0.286 |
0.000 |
0.257 |
0.000 |
144 |
0.319 |
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13 |
0.879 |
0.000 |
0.773 |
0.000 |
0.681 |
0.000 |
0.601 |
0.000 |
0.530 |
0.000 |
0.469 |
0.000 |
0.415 |
0.000 |
0.368 |
0.000 |
0.326 |
0.000 |
0.290 |
0.290 |
0.258 |
0.000 |
0.229 |
0.000 |
156 |
0.290 |
|
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14 |
0.870 |
0.000 |
0.758 |
0.000 |
0.661 |
0.000 |
0.577 |
0.000 |
0.505 |
0.000 |
0.442 |
0.000 |
0.388 |
0.000 |
0.340 |
0.000 |
0.299 |
0.000 |
0.263 |
0.263 |
0.232 |
0.000 |
0.205 |
0.000 |
168 |
0.263 |
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15 |
0.861 |
0.000 |
0.743 |
0.000 |
0.642 |
0.000 |
0.555 |
0.000 |
0.481 |
0.000 |
0.417 |
0.000 |
0.362 |
0.000 |
0.315 |
0.000 |
0.275 |
0.000 |
0.239 |
0.239 |
0.209 |
0.000 |
0.183 |
0.000 |
180 |
0.239 |
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16 |
0.853 |
0.000 |
0.728 |
0.000 |
0.623 |
0.000 |
0.534 |
0.000 |
0.458 |
0.000 |
0.394 |
0.000 |
0.339 |
0.000 |
0.292 |
0.000 |
0.252 |
0.000 |
0.218 |
0.218 |
0.188 |
0.000 |
0.163 |
0.000 |
192 |
0.218 |
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17 |
0.844 |
0.000 |
0.714 |
0.000 |
0.605 |
0.000 |
0.513 |
0.000 |
0.436 |
0.000 |
0.371 |
0.000 |
0.317 |
0.000 |
0.270 |
0.000 |
0.231 |
0.000 |
0.198 |
0.198 |
0.170 |
0.000 |
0.146 |
0.000 |
204 |
0.198 |
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18 |
0.836 |
0.000 |
0.700 |
0.000 |
0.587 |
0.000 |
0.494 |
0.000 |
0.416 |
0.000 |
0.350 |
0.000 |
0.296 |
0.000 |
0.250 |
0.000 |
0.212 |
0.000 |
0.180 |
0.180 |
0.153 |
0.000 |
0.130 |
0.000 |
216 |
0.180 |
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19 |
0.828 |
0.000 |
0.686 |
0.000 |
0.570 |
0.000 |
0.475 |
0.000 |
0.396 |
0.000 |
0.331 |
0.000 |
0.277 |
0.000 |
0.232 |
0.000 |
0.194 |
0.000 |
0.164 |
0.164 |
0.138 |
0.000 |
0.116 |
0.000 |
228 |
0.164 |
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20 |
0.820 |
0.000 |
0.673 |
0.000 |
0.554 |
0.000 |
0.456 |
0.000 |
0.377 |
0.000 |
0.312 |
0.000 |
0.258 |
0.000 |
0.215 |
0.000 |
0.178 |
0.000 |
0.149 |
0.149 |
0.124 |
0.000 |
0.104 |
0.000 |
240 |
0.149 |
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